Singapore Retail Sales Growth Strengthen 4q2025 Rhb

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According to a recent research report by RHB, Singapore’s retail market is expected to experience a surge in sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite the modest performance observed year-to-date. The firm has kept its initial projection of a 2.5% increase in retail sales for the whole year, citing a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remaining months.

This forecast remains unchanged as Singapore reported a higher growth in retail sales in August. Data from the Department of Statistics shows that retail sales expanded by 5.2% year-on-year in August, which is an improvement from the 4.6% increase in July. RHB’s report points out that this growth in August marks the strongest expansion in retail sales since February 2024, when a 8.4% year-on-year increase was recorded. With this figure added, Singapore’s year-to-date retail sales have risen by 2.2%.

RHB expects retail activity to stay stable in the last quarter due to the rise in tourism inflows, coinciding with festivals such as Deepavali and Christmas, along with the year-end school holidays. Additionally, government measures such as the SG60 distribution and the GST vouchers are expected to provide a temporary boost to domestic demand. Under this scheme, eligible Singaporeans received up to $850 in cash in August, in addition to the $600 in SG60 vouchers received in July.

The firm also points to positive online sales data as an indicator of strong consumer confidence, further supporting its optimistic outlook. Online sales contributed to 13.1% of the total retail sales value of $4.3 billion in August, which is similar to the proportion in July. The majority of online sales were for computer and telecommunications equipment (54.5%), followed by furniture and household items (32.6%), and supermarkets or hypermarkets (11.3%).

Despite the resilient performance of the retail market, RHB notes that the positive outlook is dependent on stable economic conditions. The report cautions that there may be potential risks if the economy experiences a slowdown in the second half of 2025, along with a softening labor market. Factors that could contribute to this include weaker external demand due to tariffs and a decrease in labor demand for sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade.