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HDB resale prices inched up by only 0.4% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2025, a significant slowdown from the 0.9% growth seen in the previous quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of slower price growth, and is the slowest increase since the sluggish 0.3% rise recorded in the second quarter of 2020.

Nevertheless, Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, points out that HDB resale prices have seen a 55.7% increase since hitting a low in the second quarter of 2019, and have risen by 54.4% since the Covid-19 circuit breaker period in the second quarter of 2020. Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, echoes this sentiment, adding that the surge in prices may have widened the gap between seller expectations and buyer affordability. “With more sellers asking for record prices and buyers showing resistance, the rising price disparities have led to slower deal negotiations and a generally more challenging resale market,” she says.

In the third quarter, 15 out of 26 HDB towns recorded price gains. Clementi saw the biggest q-o-q increase of 7.8%, followed by Central Area (6.3%) and Geylang (5.0%). Sun notes that most flat types saw average prices drop or record slower growth. Two-room units saw the highest growth in the third quarter, with average prices rising 3.1% q-o-q from $363,196 in the second quarter to $374,596 in the third quarter. Five-room units saw modest growth of 0.7% q-o-q, followed by four-room flats, which saw average prices increase by 0.3% in the quarter. This is the first time since the fourth quarter of 2023 that resale prices of four- and five-room flats have seen quarterly growth of less than 1%.

On the other hand, multi-gen and executive flats and three-room units saw average prices decline by 1.6% q-o-q and 0.8% q-o-q, respectively, according to HDB caveats. “The more gradual pace of increase reflects a cooling in demand for resale flats, as buyers turn to new build-to-order (BTO) and sale-of-balance flats (SBF) launches, with around 30,000 new units offered this year,” observes Sun.

Resale transactions dip in third quarter of 2025

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HDB resale transactions saw a 1.7% increase from 7,102 units in the second quarter of 2025 to 7,221 units in the third quarter. On a yearly basis, 20,913 units were transacted, a 7.3% decline from the 22,562 units sold in the same period in 2024.

Huttons’ Lee attributes the lower y-o-y volume to the launch of over 10,000 flats under the July 2025 BTO and SBF exercise. “More than 3,900 flats were either completed or had a shorter waiting time of 3 years or less, pulling away some demand from the HDB resale market,” he says.

The five most popular HDB towns among buyers in the third quarter of 2025 were Punggol, Sengkang, Tampines, Woodlands and Yishun. They accounted for around 36.2% of total transactions during the quarter.

Growing number of million-dollar flats

Despite the slowing price growth in the third quarter of 2025, an estimated 480 flats were sold for seven-figure sums, a 15.9% increase from the previous quarter and the highest number of million-dollar transactions ever recorded in a single quarter.

“Flats in mature estates continue to make up the majority of million-dollar transactions, underscoring the strong demand for homes in more centrally located towns and those offering more extensive amenities,” notes Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore.

According to Huttons’ data analytics, around 79 of these transactions were units that had just reached their five-year Mandatory Occupation Period (MOP), a 25.4% increase from the previous quarter.

In the third quarter of 2025, 90% of the million-dollar transactions were in mature estates, with Toa Payoh recording the highest number of million-dollar flats sold at 92. This was followed by Bukit Merah with 61 flats, and Kallang/Whampoa, which rounded out the top three with 40 flats.

ERA Singapore’s Lim notes that million-dollar transactions make up a small segment of the market, accounting for 6.6% of all resale transactions.

Outlook for the market

“With the school holiday season approaching in the fourth quarter of 2025, a period that typically sees many families travelling and a dip in resale activity, HDB transactions and prices are expected to moderate slightly,” opines Lim. He adds that the recent conclusion of the October BTO exercise, which offered the largest supply of BTO flats in 2025 at 9,144 units, could draw prospective buyers away from the resale market.

Huttons’ Lee agrees, noting, “Some buyers may opt to apply for these flats notwithstanding that they may come with strict restrictions on resale.” He anticipates HDB resale prices to rise at a slower pace of 3-4%, with 26,000 to 28,000 resale HDB flat transactions by the end of 2025. He estimates at least 1,500 million-dollar transactions, which could make up more than 5% of total market activity.

Realion’s Sun projects a price increase of 3-5% and 28,000 to 29,000 units sold, while ERA’s Lim forecasts prices rising by 3-6% across 26,000 to 27,000 transactions.