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According to the latest flash estimates published on Oct 1, HDB resale flat prices grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2025. This marks the 22nd consecutive quarter of price increases since the second quarter of 2020, although the pace of growth has been gradually slowing down. The 0.4% increase in the third quarter of 2025 is the smallest quarterly gain since the second quarter of 2020, according to HDB.

The figure for the third quarter of 2025 follows three consecutive quarters of slower price growth, with increases of 0.9% and 1.6% recorded in the second and first quarters of the year respectively. This brings the total growth for the first nine months of 2025 to 2.9%, a decline from the 6.9% growth recorded over the same period last year. It is also lower than the 3.8% growth seen in the first nine months of 2023.

In terms of volume, there were 7,157 resale transactions in the third quarter of 2025, slightly higher than the previous quarter but a 10.9% decrease from the same period last year. According to Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, this slowdown in activity can be attributed to the July Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises.

During the exercises, HDB launched a total of 10,209 flats for sale, including those with shorter waiting times (SWT). “These SWT flats and completed SBF flats may have diverted demand away from the resale market,” explains Lee.

Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Singapore, agrees and adds that the July exercises also included highly sought-after locations such as Toa Payoh and Bukit Merah. He also highlights that the lower supply of flats reaching their minimum occupation period may have contributed to the decline in resale volume.

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, suggests that some buyers may have chosen to wait for the October BTO exercise, which would include the launch of new flats in Mount Pleasant and Greater Southern Waterfront – areas with high demand.

In terms of price movements, Lee of Huttons notes that most flat types saw either a decrease or slower growth in average resale prices. Four-and five-room flats recorded a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% and 0.7% respectively in the third quarter of 2025, a decrease from the 1.4% and 1.2% increases seen in the previous quarter. On the other hand, three-room and executive or multi-gen flats saw a decline in prices of 0.9% and 1.6% respectively, after recording increases in the previous quarter.

Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc, also highlights the divergence in price movements between newer and older flats. He notes that flats with leases starting from 2013 onwards continued to drive the overall resale market prices, with an increase of 1.5% in the third quarter of 2025. In contrast, flats built in 1970 or earlier saw a sharp decline in prices of 5.7%, indicating the impact of lease decay and financing challenges on buyer demand.

Furthermore, newer flats are also accounting for a larger share of million-dollar transactions. Lim from ERA Singapore notes that out of the approximately 480 resale transactions that were above $1 million, 246 were for flats less than 15 years old. He also mentions that the third quarter saw 11 transactions surpassing $1.5 million, with 10 of them involving flats that were less than 15 years old. Most of the million-dollar transactions continue to take place in mature estates such as Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, Kallang-Whampoa, Clementi, and Queenstown.

Looking ahead, Sun from Realion predicts that resale flat prices will remain stable or see a slight decline in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is due to the typical dip in demand during the final quarter of the year, as market activity slows down during the year-end holidays. Lim from ERA Singapore also notes that the October BTO exercise will see over 9,000 flats being launched, making it the largest launch of the year. This may cause some buyers to hold off from the resale market until the ballot results are released. However, ERA maintains its full-year forecast range of 3% to 6% for resale price growth in 2025, with an expected volume of around 26,000 to 27,000 transactions.

Overall, the flash estimates for the third quarter of 2025 show a continuing trend of slower price growth and a decline in resale volume compared to the same period last year.